Product Description

In an increasingly complex world, decision analysis has a major role to play in helping decision-makers to gain insights into the problems they face. Decision Analysis for Management Judgment is unique in its breadth of coverage of decision analysis methods. It covers both the psychological problems that are associated with unaided managerial decision making and the decision analysis methods designed to overcome them. It is presented and explained in a clear, straightforward manner without using mathematical notation.

 The fourth edition has been fully revised and updated and includes a number of changes to reflect the latest developments in the field.

Product Details

• Amazon Sales Rank: #242870 in Books
• Published on: 2009-11-09
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Binding: Paperback
• 468 pages

From the Publisher
An introduction to decision analysis methods and their application in business management. Considers theoretical issues but focuses on practical management problems. The discussion integrates the quantitative and psychological aspects of decision making and covers problems involving multiple objectives, methods of group decision making, behavioral issues and probability. Offers discussion questions, exercises and references to applicable computer software.

From the Back Cover
In an increasingly complex world, decision analysis has a major role to play in helping decision-makers to gain insights into the problems they face. Decision Analysis for Management Judgment is unique in its breadth of coverage of decision analysis methods. It covers both the psychological problems that are associated with unaided managerial decision making and the decision analysis methods designed to overcome them. It is presented and explained in a clear, straightforward manner without using mathematical notation.

The fourth edition has been fully revised and updated and includes a number of changes to reflect the latest developments in the field.

• A new chapter brings together enhancements of the simple multi-attribute rating method (SMART) and alternatives, such as the AHP, Even-Swaps, and Macbeth.
• Chapter 2 now includes topics like decoy effects and the effect of emotions on decisions.
• The merits of ‘snap decisions’ and choice architectures are assessed
• There is extended discussion of scenario planning, expert systems and linear models.
• New sections cover prediction markets, calibration of probabilities, and implementing the Delphi method.
• Includes new web material such as cases and multiple choice questions.

The book is intended for MBA students and business and management undergraduates who are not specialist mathematicians. It will also appeal to practising managers. The companion website can be found at: www.wileyeurope.com/college/goodwin

About the Author
Paul Goodwin is Professor of Management Science at the School of Management, University of Bath. His research interests focus on the role of management judgment in forecasting and decision-making and he has published in key journals in the field. He is an Associate Editor of the International Journal of Forecasting and a member of the editorial board of the Journal of Behavioural Decision Making.

George Wright is Professor of Management at the Business School, Durham University. He is the founding Editor of the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making and an Associate Editor of two forecasting journals: International Journal of Forecasting and the Journal of Forecasting. He is also an Associate Editor of Decision Support Systems and a member of the editorial board of Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis.

Customer Reviews

An excellent introduction to decision analysis
This book is an excellent introduction to the subject. The features of the book that I found most helpful were

- the concise review of probability theory;
- the accessible writing style throughout;
- the helpful examples; and
- the numerous citations to original research.

This book is a must-read for anyone who is interested in improving the quality of their decisions.

A top-notch text, well designed, interesting; recommended.
Draws together ideas from management science, statistics and psychology to present techniques and approaches to decision-making. Covers such topics as probability, utility, uncertainty, analytic hierarchy process, and simulation. The text explains the use of decision trees and influence diagrams. Chapters include discussion questions and references. Highly accessible and well designed text that makes an excellent introduction to this subject. Reviewed by Gerry Stern, founder, Stern & Associates, author of Stern's Sourcefinder The Master Directory to HR and Business Management Information & Resources, Stern's CyberSpace SourceFinder, and the Compensation and Benefits SourceFinder.

An excellent book-easy to read, comprehensive and up-to-date
This book is an excellent intoduction to decision analysis.Written in an easy-to read style, it covers a very wide range of topics, but never treats them superfically. Throughout the book the emphasis is on applications and the authors take a balanced view of the strengths and limitations of decision analysis as an aid to decsion making. The book is full of exercises and discussion questions and you can even obtain discounts on purchases of major decsion analysis software products if you buy it.