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Computer simulation models and scientific uncertainty in policy making
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Lies, Damned Lies, and Science: How to Sort through the Noise around Global Warming, the Latest Health Claims, and Other Scientific ControversiesLies, Damned Lies, and Science: How to Sort through the Noise around Global Warming, the Latest Health Claims, and Other Scientific Controversies by Sherry Seethaler
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Very comprehensive, aimed for the general public, provides you with the tools to do your own critical thinking, and very helpful for policy decision making in light of the normal scientific uncertainties and limitations of science in progress. Covers almost all topics included in the other books on this list. Highly recommended. 2009
The Logic of Scientific Discovery (Routledge Classics)The Logic of Scientific Discovery (Routledge Classics) by Karl Popper
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Required reading to understand how the scientific process works, and why falsifiability is so important for any preposition or methodology to be considered truly scientific. The lack of refutability is precisely one of the key unanswered questions by simulation modelers, and not many practitioners are paying attention at how good their forecasts are. Aimed for scholars, not an easy reading.1959
Popper SelectionsPopper Selections by Sir Karl Raimund Popper
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A summary of Popper's key publications. Recommended in case you just want to know about falsifiability, but do not want to read the whole thing. Other materials cover Popper's take not only in the hard sciences but also in the social sciences and historicity. 1985
The Structure of Scientific RevolutionsThe Structure of Scientific Revolutions by Thomas S. Kuhn
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The classic about how science progresses and how new paradigms are born. The perfect complement to Popper's work, even though Kuhn and Popper do not agree in everything. This work is more of the sociologist approach, but philosophy of science after all. 1977
Why We Disagree About Climate Change: Understanding Controversy, Inaction and OpportunityWhy We Disagree About Climate Change: Understanding Controversy, Inaction and Opportunity by Mike Hulme
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By a famous climate scientist, truly a must read for those interested in the philosophical aspects of this debate, regardless of your side on the debate. 2009
The Future of Everything: The Science of PredictionThe Future of Everything: The Science of Prediction by David Orrell
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Comprehensive and technical, but accessible to general audiences. The scope includes forecasting in economics and finance, biology, and climate science, and highlights how practitioners are in denial of the limitations of modeling of complex systems and the magnitude of their errors. A must read if you have a genuine concerned on how politicized science is dominating the political agenda. 2007
Simulating Nature: A Philosophical Study of Computer-Simulation Uncertainties and Their Role in Climate Science andSimulating Nature: A Philosophical Study of Computer-Simulation Uncertainties and Their Role in Climate Science and by Arthur Petersen
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This book goes right to the core of the issue. 2007
The Misbehavior of Markets: A Fractal View of Financial TurbulenceThe Misbehavior of Markets: A Fractal View of Financial Turbulence by Benoit Mandelbrot
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For those who think nobody saw the 2008 Financial Crash coming. Since the 1960s Mandelbrot discovered why financial risk modeling and its underlying theory couldn't be trusted for future forecasting, but consensus was he was wrong. 2006
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly ImprobableThe Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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A must read, notwithstanding Taleb's arrogance. Despite of the uncertainties, the proven lack of reliability to predict the 1987 October Crash, and the 2000 Dot-com Bubble, financial risk models were considered reliable. A book written before the 2008 Financial Crash that makes crystal clear the limitations of forecasting. 2007
The Crash of 2008 and What it Means: The New Paradigm for Financial MarketsThe Crash of 2008 and What it Means: The New Paradigm for Financial Markets by George Soros
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Soros takes his own explanation and even proposes his own paradigm, but in the end, a successful market speculator shows us why financial models and economic theory are no good for forecasting, and were unable to predict the 2008 Financial Crash. 2009
An Appeal to Reason: A Cool Look at Global WarmingAn Appeal to Reason: A Cool Look at Global Warming by Nigel Lawson
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One of the few books about the global warming controversy that raises the issue of lack of fasifiability intrinsic to climate simulation models. But Lawson most important contribution is his analysis on how to go about mitigation even with all the uncertainties. A good example on how policy making should be guided by reason and common sense, considering the economic impact of those decisions. 2008
The Deniers: The World Renowned Scientists Who Stood Up Against Global Warming Hysteria, Political Persecution, and Fraud**And those who are too fearful to do soThe Deniers: The World Renowned Scientists Who Stood Up Against Global Warming Hysteria, Political Persecution, and Fraud**And those who are too fearful to do so by Lawrence Solomon
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Chapter 8: “Models and the Limits of Predictability” presents criticism by renowned physicists Freeman Dyson and Antonino Zichichi, questioning the confidence and validity of climate simulation forecasts, particularly regarding the use of parametrization or “fudge factors”. Also look for Hendrik Tennekes arguments regarding the lack of falsifiability from Popper’s philosophical point of view. 2008
Sustainable Energy - Without the Hot AirSustainable Energy - Without the Hot Air by David JC MacKay
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An excellent example of what makes sense and what doesn't in order to reduce greenhouse emissions, and MacKay just applied back-of-the-envelope calculations and common sense. Policy should be based on such rational analysis, without emotional appeals, and above all, without the hot air. Available for free in PDF in the internet. 2008
Retreat of Reason: Political Correctness & the Corruption of Public Debate in Modern BritainRetreat of Reason: Political Correctness & the Corruption of Public Debate in Modern Britain by David Conway
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How political correctness is hindering the public debated, and is being guided by emotion, ad hominen attacks, instead of the value of the arguments and reason. Despite being written for social issues, the criticism also applies in the context of several of the current scientific debates and controversies, particularly those involving environmental groups. 2008
The Spiral of Silence: Public Opinion--Our Social SkinThe Spiral of Silence: Public Opinion--Our Social Skin by Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann
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Another interesting book regarding how the media influences the political debate, leaving a dissenting minority silenced by fear of social rejection. Though a theory developed in the context of the social sciences, research has now move toward the presence of this effect in the debate regarding biotechnologies. Are we beginning to witness a spiral of silence among scientists? 1993
Sidney Hook on Pragmatism, Democracy, and Freedom: The Essential EssaysSidney Hook on Pragmatism, Democracy, and Freedom: The Essential Essays by Sidney Hook
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Don't miss the essay "The Ethics of Controversy", the perfect complement for those who want to deepen the "Retreat of Reason." 2002
State of FearState of Fear by Michael Crichton
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No, there is no mistake nor a tribute. Though I consider this sci-fi work one of Crichton's worst novels (see my review), his Author's Message at the end of the book (where he made explicit his opinion on global warming and environmentalism), and the Appendix I, “Why Politicized Science is Dangerous”, are worthwhile the reading. Check also YouTube for his speeches on politicized science. 2004
SuperFreakonomics: Global Cooling, Patriotic Prostitutes, and Why Suicide Bombers Should Buy Life InsuranceSuperFreakonomics: Global Cooling, Patriotic Prostitutes, and Why Suicide Bombers Should Buy Life Insurance by Steven D. Levitt
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Skeptical about the similarities between financial and climate models? Just read Chapter 5, and any coincidence with Crichton arguments, well, it is not a coincidence but simple rational thinking. 2009