Product Description

One of America's most successful financial analysts provides a comprehensive, reliable guide to stock market investment, using proven techniques to pick stocks and explaining how to know when to buy and sell to achieve maximum return with minimum risk. Reprint."

Product Details

• Amazon Sales Rank: #55033 in Books
• Published on: 1997-06-01
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Binding: Paperback
• 304 pages

From Publishers Weekly
Financial adviser and Wall Street Week TV panelist Zweig has been fascinated by the stock market since childhood, he tells usnot industry or commerce as such, but the buying and selling of stocks to make money. He has evidently made a lot of it, and has won the confidence of readers of his financial newsletter. Zweig is more enthusiastic about the intricacies of his "technical" stock market approach than he can expect the average investor-reader to be. Nevertheless, he has produced here a clear and detailed analysis of market trends, interest rates, Federal Reserve policy, debt volume, market "momentum," etc., that seems to carry the technical side of stock-market theory as far as it can go. The result is a sure-fire system for beating the marketprovided you make no mistakes.
Copyright 1986 Reed Business Information, Inc.

From Library Journal
Zweig's "proven methods for market forecasting and stock selection" are presented in a simplified version of the approach he uses in his Zweig Forecast newsletter calculations. Tables show how well an investor would have done by following the buy or sell signals for his Super Model, which is constructed of various "monetary" and "momentum" indicators. He also subjects his decisions to "sentiment" and "seasonal" indicators. Scan earnings reports, he advises, be flexible, have patience and discipline, set stop orders, and "don't fight the tape." The drawback, common to all such systems, is that transaction costs and taxes are ignored. Nor does Zweig's claim that his model can be accomplished on one transaction per year square with his admonition to diversify into several stocks. On balance, however, the concepts are clearly presented, and his success will probably create a demand. Alex Wenner, M.L.S., Bloomington, Ind.
Copyright 1986 Reed Business Information, Inc.

Customer Reviews

The book that started it all for me
Winning on Wall Street is the first book I ever read about investing (back in 1990). Marty Zweig may not be the most glamorous or charismatic guru, but his disciplined and unemotional approach to the markets is what makes him my most revered market player. Famous for calling the 1987 crash (forever captured on the archives of Wall Street Week), Zweig has receded from public view considerably. He discontinued his valuable Zweig Market Letter about 5 years ago and ever since Rukeyser disbanded his elves, Marty rarely shows up on the show. So, this is your best opportunity to tap the mind of an investor whose success has lasted for decades.

Admittedly, Zweig's writing style is fairly academic (he's a PhD). The book is different from many in that much of it works to set forth a model which will allow you to be on the right side of the general market for its major moves. When you boil it down, the primary influences on the model are interest rates, and measuring the underlying strength of the averages. I can now attest firsthand to the durability of this model - I have been dutifully running it myself since 1990 and it has performed admirably. Major BUY signals came in 12/90, 1/96, and 1/01. SELL signals came in 5/94 and 9/99. Again, those were not perfect bottoms and tops, but allowed you to participate in the major upmoves and avoid significant stretches of downward activity. Other useful discussions include those on sentiment and seasonal indicators. The fundamental portion of the book leaves something to be desired - stock picking is not Zweig's strong suit. By the way, opinions suggesting that Zweig is a speculator are off the mark. In fact, his approach is designed to 1) minimize risk, and 2) catch the majority (middle portion) of a market move. (...) Winning on Wall Street has become one of my best reference tools. If you are serious about building your understanding of the markets and improving your investment results, this is a book that you must own.

Dangerous
Zweig made his reputation as a market timer, and 2/3 of this book presents a detailed market timing model that incorporates both "money indicators" (e.g. prime rate, fed funds rate, consumer debt) and a basic momentum indicator. The model is relatively simple and the method is clearly explained. According to Zweig's data, the system produced remarkable results up through the final revision of this book (in 1996).

But, of course, you have to wonder... The book has been revised four times since its initial publication in 1986...and yet not a single revision in the past ten years. Hmmmm...wonder why?

Unfortunately, the obvious answer is the correct one. Zweig's "Super Model", which he touts as "The Only Investment Model You Will Ever Need" (yes, that's an actual chapter title), utterly failed after 1996. Some other reviewers claim to have followed the model successfully since the last edition of the book. I don't know what numbers they're working with, but I've done the very tedious work to recreate the signals the model would have given since 1996, using only actual data available as of the date it became available, following Zweig's methodology precisely, and applying it to the Value Line Arithmetic Index (a very close substitute for the proprietary benchmark he uses in the book). From March 1996 (the last data point in the book) through June 28, 2006, the Value Line Index produced a gain of 222.8% (buy & hold, excluding dividends). Following the Zweig "Super Model" long-only generated a gain of 95.5% (not including interest income while in cash), and following the model long/short produced a gain of only 18.4% (yes, that's total, not annualized...). So much for the "Super Model".

As for Zweig's stock picking method, it's a pretty straightforward approach blending GARP and momentum and is very capably summarized on AAII's excellent web site. Save yourself the time and money and just go there if you want a starting point for stock screening ideas.

a classic text on how markets work
A basic work that every investor should read. The best source for simple explanations of the mechinisms that drive bull and bear markets. "Outdated and misleading" says one reviewer who did not find it applicable for trading the .com mania in Feb 2000, but why that market crashed a month after the review was written can be found in Mr. Zweig's work. The fact is the theories and applications found in this book have correctly called every major market move since the mid 1980's. You can find books that can help you make more money during bull markets, but if you want to KEEP the money you make this is the best place to start.