Product Description

“[Taleb is] Wall Street’s principal dissident. . . . [Fooled By Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-nine theses were to the Catholic Church.”
–Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker

Finally in paperback, the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about the markets and the world.This book is about luck: more precisely how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences.

Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of business–Fooled by Randomness is an irreverent, iconoclastic, eye-opening, and endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood forces in all of our lives.

Product Details

• Amazon Sales Rank: #993 in Books
• Published on: 2005-08-23
• Released on: 2005-08-23
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Binding: Paperback
• 368 pages

Amazon.com Review
If the prescriptions for getting rich that are outlined in books such as The Millionaire Next Door and Rich Dad Poor Dad are successful enough to make the books bestsellers, then one must ask, Why aren't there more millionaires? In Fooled by Randomness, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a professional trader and mathematics professor, examines what randomness means in business and in life and why human beings are so prone to mistake dumb luck for consummate skill. This eccentric and highly personal exploration of the nature of randomness meanders from the court of Croesus and trading rooms in New York and London to Russian roulette, Monte Carlo engines, and the philosophy of Karl Popper. Part of what makes this book so good is Taleb's ability to make seemingly arcane mathematical concepts (at least to this reviewer) entirely relevant in evaluating and understanding everything from the stock market to the success of those millionaires cited in the aforementioned bestsellers. Here's an articulate, wise, and humorous meditation on the nature of success and failure that anyone who wants a little more of the former would do well to consider. Highly recommended. --Harry C. Edwards

From Publishers Weekly
In this look at financial luck, hedge fund manager Taleb (Dynamic Hedging) addresses the apparently irrational movement of money markets around the world. Using his own investing experience and examples of others' successes and disappointments, he discusses theories like Monte Carlo math (easy; considered cheating by purists) and the concept of Russian roulette. Taleb tells interesting, well-wrought stories about individual behavior: "While Nero has succeeded beyond his wildest dreams, both personally and intellectually, he is starting to consider himself as having missed a chance somewhere." While serious investors and mathematics enthusiasts will be intrigued, readers looking for practical investment strategies will be disappointed by this rambling intellectual discourse. Tables. 40,000-copy first printing; $150,000 marketing budget.

Copyright 2001 Cahners Business Information, Inc.

From Booklist
Taleb is a "quant," or mathematical trader, and an expert on financial derivatives who has made a name for himself in investing circles as a voluble critic of popular theories and conventional wisdom. He is also the author of Dynamic Hedging: Managing Vanilla and Exotic Options (1996). Taleb is fluent in seven languages and a reader of classical literature, an avocation that readily manifests itself in this meandering discourse on the roles of probability, luck, and risk in the markets and in life. Taleb examines how and why the attempt to determine cause and effect is continually hampered by random occurrences and our emotional responses to them. He freely shares his ideas and opinions, finding insights in the funeral of Jackie Onassis, B. F. Skinner's experiments on pigeons, Solon's warning, Karl Popper's work, George Soros, Darwinism, the O. J. Simpson trial, Pascal's wager, the collapse of Long Term Capital Management, the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, birthdays, taxicabs, and especially the works of ancient Greek philosophers. David Rouse
Copyright © American Library Association. All rights reserved

Customer Reviews

A good airport book, but not to the point
The main thesis is that people underestimate the importance of random events. The book is very timely when I read it after the crash of 2008.

My key problem with the book is that the author beats around the bush all the time. It is not clear what his specific arguments are. Since the specific arguments are not clear, it is impossible to think about counter-arguments. And then he moves onto the next chapter and the same structure repeat itself. This kind of tires the intellectual part of my brain.

For my non-intellectual brain I do like reading the book, or halfway through skimming. Taleb provides some stories that gives you insight into the lives of traders. I don't find the author unbearable as some reviewers do. Actually I find it nice that he has a strong voice and trashes other people. Like when calling Wall Street economists for entertainers. That makes it more interesting. But the author is always careful not to trash any named individuals. That is not very brave, but I suppose he doesn't want to burn any bridges.

The takeaway of this book is: "I need to read some more books so that I have a better understanding of the issues in the book". Had I read ten books in the areas I would be in a position to rank this book. If you haven't read anything in the area, I would still recommend this book. It should sell well at airports, but I am sure that there are better books out there. Recommendations appreciated in the Comments section!

Taleb is unbelievably taken with himself (and has quite an affinity for parenthetical exposition).
This was mostly a masturbatory essay by an author unbelievably taken with himself. The entire first third of the volume explains to the reader why the author is so smart, and why everyone else is so not smart. He embarks on a series of ad hominem attacks condemning many different people and professions as stupid, while offering no evidence outside of the fact that their trading account may have "blown up." Yes, the first third of book was "noise."

Moving onto part two, we actually get something for our $16.00: we get a basic statistical probability class reduced to laymen's terms. Taleb is certainly not revealing knowledge previously unknown to the world, but we do get maybe 25 pages of "signal."

Taleb's writing style is horrifically jumpy, and lacks the most basic flow techniques, and the last third of the book epitomizes this fact. Even more disappointing, Taleb fails to cleanly summarize the support for his stated hypothesis. He does, however, finally show some humility, if only in one or two sentences. Overall, just more "noise."

It appears Taleb badly needed to write this book as a means to vent and criticize. Although, I'm thinking this may have merely been a tactic to generate sales. His liberal use of hyperbole suggests he is deliberately trying to generate reactions from people and thus generate publicity for the work. An example of this is Taleb claiming that Warren Buffet is just a lucky idiot. The author provides preemptive defenses throughout the book despite the fact that he claims he puts wax in his ears while also reminding us that he has read the Odyssey. Wow, I'm impressed.

I have to agree with him on a few of his criticisms, however. I couldn't agree more when it comes to journalists and financial commentators, and most of all, people who consistenly incorrectly predict market movements on CNBC.

I found it very curious that Taleb systematically attacks the methods of traders in general, but does not let us in on what he does as a trader to maintain long term success. The only shred of evidence we get, is that Taleb does not write options. Okay, so we know what he doesn't do. As someone who trades options, and also does not write options, I would have liked a little elaboration on this topic. As a matter of fact, we don't get any real world applications of how to use the profound knowledge Taleb has bestowed upon us.

Overall, had Taleb employed the services of a professional author who could have organized the endless thoughts and perspectives of Taleb, he could have sold over a million copies, instead of just 260,000. Unfortunately, readers of this book have to endure what is really an autobiography of sorts, informing us of how "deep" the author is. He informs us that he works out at least twice in the book, he constantly brags about his knowledge of literature and philosophy, and let's us know that he travels Europe extensively (by leisurely train of course, because apparently flying is for white trash).

Anyways, the guy has a handful of good points. I just wish the book had some more content. I would have never read the book had I known it was going to be 250 pages of self indulgence written by an author who couldn't be more impressed with himself.

This book will cause you to think!
A great book. Read this, then follow up with the BLACK SWAN. I am more inclined to recommend this book for people who are self employed or investors. [.............]