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China: The Balance Sheet: What the World Needs to Know About the Emerging Superpower (Institute International Econom)
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Product Description
Over the past year, Dr. Bates Gill, C. Fred Bergsten, Nicholas R. Lardy, and Derek Mitchell have led four task forces through a rigorous exercise of investigation and intelligence, compiling and analyzing the authoritative data on China's economy, foreign and domestic policy, and national security. Now that material has been shaped into an accessible narrative filled with facts, but written for the general reader. The expert judgements presented in China: The Balance Sheet will inform policymakers in Washintgon, scholars and the business community for years to come.
Product Details
- Amazon Sales Rank: #177103 in Books
- Published on: 2006-04-17
- Number of items: 1
- Binding: Hardcover
- 224 pages
Editorial Reviews
Foreign Affairs, January 2007
"brings out the complexities of China's development and...what the United States can or should be doing to encourage China's advancement."
About the Author
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is a nonprofit, bipartisan public policy organization established in 1962 to provide strategic insights and practical policy solutions to decision makers concerned with global security.
The Institute for International Economics (IIE), founded in 1981, is a private, nonprofit, nonpartisan research institution committed to providing timely, objective analysis and concrete solutions to key international economic problems. IIE has been called "the most influential think tank on the planet."
Customer Reviews
Excellent overall treatment of China but China's growth has been greatly overestimated
This book contains an excellent ,overall assessment of China.It shows both the strengths and weaknesses of China.However,it is not the case that China's growth rate over the last 30 yaers has been 10 %.In late 2007,the World Bank,based on a complete reassessment of its estimates of Chinese price equivalents ,in terms of USA prices,based on standard purchasing power parity calculations,estimated China's Gross Domestic Product(gdp) to be no more than $6 trillion and not the $10-$11 trillion estimated in 2005 and 2006.This corrected statistic can be compared to the current gdp of the United States ,which is around $13 trillion.Similarly,the alleged rising middle class of China turns out to be at most 100 million out of a population of 1.4 billion.These facts mean that China is not the unstoppable powerhouse claimed in numerous other currently available books on China.The China threat,in fact,appears to be very similar ,in many respects, to the old Soviet Union threat based on faulty economic growth statistics that had greatly overestimated the Soviet Union's economic growth rate.
An incredibly efficient review of what's up in China
This book is the best primer on the rise of China and the consequences to the United States that I have come across. Most other authors on the subject feel the need to have a strong thesis, either "China: House of Cards" or "China: Unstoppable Juggernaut". The team here presents a balanced and clinical view while venturing to conclusions on reccommended US actions as well. Well worth the quick read to cut through all the China hype/noise out there.
Little, No Credibility!
Pg. 4: "China's average wage is one-thirtieth of the U.S. and its average productivity level is equally lower (and wages, in any event account for only 20% of the cost of producing textiles and 5% of the cost of producing semiconductors)." If so, manufacturers that offshore in China would be stupid; alternatively, "China: The Balance Sheet" has a serious credibility problem. I go with the latter.
Nonetheless, this is still some value to the book for its statistics. For example, the authors believe China's foreign exchange reserves reached $1 trillion in '06, far more than any other country's, and probably more than enough to make serious improvement in its pollution and poverty problems. By 2050, China's economy is projected to be the world's largest; foreign investment only accounts for 5% of its capital growth - the Chinese savings rate of about 33% is more than enough to handle China's growth with money left over.
As for social services, "The Balance Sheet" asserts a mid-90's adult literacy rate of about 80% (vs. 50% in India) and graduates 800,000 scientists and engineers/year, while spending only 2.8% of GDP on education. Healthcare accounts for about 6% - far less than the U.S.' 16%.
Only 16% of China's land is arable, and most of its population lives on it. China's leaders are pressured to improve employment to absorb those leaving rural China, as well as those 40% released from state-jobs (including 80% from state-owned manufacturers).
Bergsten et al are most concerned about the possibility of conflict between the U.S. and China re Taiwan, and they point out that China uses its political (U.N. Security Council membership) and economic muscle to "encourage" others to support it re Taiwan.
