Product Description

Risk Analysis concerns itself with the quantification of risk, the modeling of identified risks and how to make decisions from those models. Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) using Monte Carlo simulation offers a powerful and precise method for dealing with the uncertainty and variability of a problem. By providing the building blocks the author guides the reader through the necessary steps to produce an accurate risk analysis model and offers general and specific techniques to cope with most modeling problems. A wide range of solved problems is used to illustrate these techniques and how they can be used together to solve otherwise complex problems.

Product Details

• Amazon Sales Rank: #74249 in Books
• Published on: 2008-05-19
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Binding: Hardcover
• 752 pages

From the Publisher
Based entirely on proven techniques, this superb guide is designed for those who do computer modelling. Stressing the accuracy of risk modelling rather than the management of risk analysis, it provides excellent guidelines for modelling uncertainty using spreadsheets and Monte Carlo software. Features sufficient probability and statistics theory for readers to be confident of the correctness of the methods and understand when and how the theories can be used. Includes scores of graphs, charts, practical exercises and model solutions.

From the Inside Flap
The Ten Commandments to quantitative risk analysis Morgan and Henrion, 1990
* Do your homework with literature, experts and users
* Let the problem drive the analysis
* Make the analysis as simple as possible, but no simpler
* Identify all significant assumptions
* Be explicit about decision criteria and policy strategy
* Be explicit about uncertainties
* Perform systematic sensitivity and uncertainty analysis
* Iteratively refine the problem statement and analysis
* Document clearly and completely
* Expose to peer review

From the Back Cover
Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide is a comprehensive guide for eh risk analyst and decision maker. based on the author's extensive experience in solving real-world risk problems, this book is an invaluable aid to the risk analysis practitioner. by providing the building blocks of risk-based thinking the author guides the reader through the steps necessary to produce a realistic risk-based thinking the author guides the reader through the steps necessary to produce a realistic risk analysis and offers general and specific techniques to cope with most common and challenging risk modelling problems. A wide range of solved examples is used to illustrate these technique and how they can be put together to make the best possible risk-based decisions.

The third edition of this highly regarded text has been thoroughly updated and expanded considerably with five new chapters for the risk manager, including how to plan and assess the quality of risk analysis, as well as new chapters for this risk analysis, as well as new chapters for the risk analysis modeller on summation of random variables, causality, optimization, insurance and finance modelling, forecasting, model validation and common errors, capital investment and microbial risk assessment. This new edition provides a greater focus on business and includes applications in a wide range of different settings.

Key Features:

• Breaks down techniques into types of modelling issues (like distribution fitting, correlation and time series forecasting) and then applies them with easy-to-follow examples.
• Explains powerful and proven Monte Carlo simulation and numerical techniques for dealing with uncertainty.
• Includes recent innovations in modelling like fast Fourier transforms and copulas.
• Over 150 examples models and over 400 illustrations.
• Written in an informal manner with a practical rather than academic focus.
• Discusses the planning, uses and abuses of risk analysis.
• Includes a compendium of almost eighty distribution types and their uses.

Customer Reviews

In depth, detailed, and
This book is not for the faint of heart - you should know statistics and have a very solid math background before you attempt to crack open the cover. While primarily focused on risk analysis within the finance and insurance industries, the principles outlined within can be carried across to other fields such as high-tech fraud. The probability calculations, Monte Carlo simulations, and other means of determining likelihood of an event occurring are all covered and will confuse the novice. Containing a slight bias towards Vose consulting services (where the author obviously hails), this book also points out what above-average risk consultation services should do for you, as well as what you, as a hiring manager, should expect.

All in all, I find this to be a great resource, and look forward to sharing the book with others in my department that are mathematicians and can truly appreciate the content.

Risk Analysis
A very good book, but a bit too much mathematical detail in deriving formulas for probability distributions; could use better descriptions of when to use each probability distribution.

Best Book for Quantitative Risk Analysis
I believe that this book is the best of many Risk Analysis books. The book's structure, starting from fundamental topics and guiding to advanced topics, is excellent. So, I translated this book into Japanese! You will make the best use of the book with Excel add-in Monte Carlo simulation software like @Risk and Crystal ball that you can get its trial version from the vendor's site(free!). But, the value of this book is not decreased with its sophistitated notation even if you don't have such software. You can enjoy the logic of Quantitative Risk Analysis. Now, the author is preparing his original software. I hope it will be as valuable as this book.