Product Description

The ultimate guide to predicting winners and losers in high technology

Pip Coburn became famous for writing some of the liveliest reports on Wall Street. He quoted everyone from Machiavelli to HAL, Anaïs Nin to Yoda, Einstein to Gandhi. But along with the quirky writing, he consistently delivered sharp insights into technology trends and helped investors pick stocks with long-term potential.

After years of studying countless winners and losers, Coburn has come up with a simple idea that explains why some technologies become huge hits (iPods, DVD players, Netflix), but others never reach more than a tiny audience (Segways, video phones, tablet PCs). He says that people are only willing to change when the pain of their current situation outweighs the perceived pain of trying something new.

In other words, technology demands a change in habits, and that’s the leading cause of failure for countless cool inventions. Too many tech companies believe in “build it and they will come”— build something better and people will beat a path to your door. But, as Coburn shows, most potential users are afraid of new technologies, and they need a really great reason to change.

The Change Function is an irreverent look at how this pattern plays out in countless sectors, from computers to cell phones to digital TV recorders. It will be an invaluable book for people who create and invest in new technologies.

Product Details

• Amazon Sales Rank: #72001 in Books
• Published on: 2006-06-22
• Format: Bargain Price
• Number of items: 1
• Binding: Hardcover
• 240 pages

From Booklist
"Build it and they will come." Only for Kevin Costner, according to Pip Coburn, former Global Technology Strategist for investment house UBS. Dubbing all consumers "earthlings," Coburn reasons that most people will not adopt a new technology until the perceived benefits outweigh the perceived pain of trying to learn something new. Coburn has taken years of research notes and created a series of case studies about individual technologies to prove his theories of failure. Using quotes from Aristotle to Einstein, plus dozens from columnists of now defunct technology magazines, Coburn makes some interesting points about technologies that consumers, oops, sorry, "earthlings" care about, such as Internet phones, HDTV, and the iPod. But most readers will not know what an ASP is (application service provider) much less why they should care. Alpha chips, early interactive TV, picture phones from the 1960s, tablet PCs, and companies like Iridium and Webvan were probably of significant interest to Coburn's investors back in the day, but they do little now to engage any earthling's interest in why these technologies failed. Gail Whitcomb
Copyright © American Library Association. All rights reserved

About the Author
Pip Coburn is the founder of Coburn Ventures, an advisory services firm. Before starting his own company, he was a managing director and global technology strategist in the technology group of UBS Investment Research, where he oversaw 120 technology and telecom analysts worldwide.

Customer Reviews

Interesting but do not show the details
The Change Function: Why Some Technologies Take Off and Others Crash and Burn
Interesting theory and well written book. Besides that it's hard to me figure out how to apply it to my business. Evaluations are qualitative and highly dependent of the assessor's knowledge. It requires a detailed guideline to be applicable on a company operation.

Essential requirements for high-tech product success
Intel icons Gordon Moore and Andy Grove are each credited with a high-tech development axiom. "Moore's Law" says the cost of putting the maximum number of transistors on an integrated circuit (like a computer chip) doubles every 24 months. This leads to the "price elasticity argument" that infers the ideal price at which consumers will find new high-tech products attractive. "Grove's Law" posits that people adopt new technology when it is "disruptive," that is, when it becomes 10 times better than anything else available. But author Pip Coburn, who writes with a lively pen, believes that high-tech leaders must put these revered principles aside, and focus instead on the people who use their technological marvels. Those who appeal to consumers will thrive. Those who do not will lose money as their products go down in flames. Is Coburn correct? As the founder of a firm that advises investors on high-tech stocks, he makes a compelling argument. We suggest that technology executives, portfolio managers, and anyone else concerned with the success of high-tech companies and their products will want to read this thoughtful book before placing their own bets.

Do I have a "crisis" that gives me greater pain than the TOTAL cost of your solution?
On one hand, this book seems to belabor the point that products are only adopted by the market if the user's have a "crisis" that outweighs the costs of acquiring and using the product. On the other hand, anyone in business selling a product should read this book.

The key concept is USER CRISIS. The whole point of the book is this -- if we don't want or need something, it doesn't matter how little it costs and how well it works.

Numerous examples are provided which illustrate that the tech industry's infatuation with Moore's law (cost will decrease and performance will increase steadily until consumers *eventually* will make the purchase) and Grove's law (success can be achieved by creating 10x improvements to technical capabilities) continues to misdirect billions of dollars.

The book illustrates how the tech community continues to believe that any cool technology will be adopted by the masses if it's costs come down enough. In other words, the majority of consumers will purchase ANYTHING if it costs little and does neat things.