Product Description

When a disruptive innovation is launched, it changes the entire industry and every firm operating within in

This book argues that it is possible to predict which companies will win and which will lose in a specific situation—and provides a practical framework for doing so.

Most books on innovation—including Christensen’s previous two books—approached innovation from the inside-out, showing firms how they can create innovations inside their own companies. This book is written from an “outside-in” perspective, showing how executives, investors, and analysts can assess the impact of a new innovation on the firms they have a vested interest in.

Product Details

• Amazon Sales Rank: #12903 in Books
• Published on: 2004-05
• Number of items: 1
• Binding: Hardcover
• 312 pages

Inc. Magazine, September 2004
"Just as kids await the latest Harry Potter installment, so do business leaders look for Clayton M. Christensen's next offering."

About the Author
Christensen is one of the brightest stars in business right now, and is recognized as one of the world’s leading experts on innovation. He is the Robert and Jane Cizik Professor of Business Administration at Harvard Business School, with a joint appointment in Technology & Operations Management and General Management

Scott D. Anthony is a Partner at Innosight LLC and Erik A. Roth is a consultant in McKinsey & Company’s Boston office.

Customer Reviews

Michael Porter of Innovation
Just as Michael Porter is the authority on Strategy, Clayton Christensen has become the authority on Innovation. He has not only created a great business theory, he has created an institution that defines our modern understanding of disruptive innovation. The foundations of his business theory are unimpeachable and the illustrations of the theory across industries are appealing to professionals inside and outside the industry alike.

In this book, Christensen's students expand on the theory first proposed in The Innovator's Dilemma to create a framework that can predict whether an innovation might be disruptive (read. has potential to transform an entire industry or create a new one). The impact of understanding and applying this theory is large.

This book maintains the quality level I have come to expect of books published by HBS press, paralleled only by Harper Business. The illustrations in this book include the Telecommunications, Education, Aviation, Semiconductors and Health Care industries. The book dedicates a couple of chapters that are of international interest: Nonmarket Factors and Innovation Overseas. This whets the appetite but does not quench the thirst for more. In the US business environment where global influence is becoming more and more relevant for future growth, it would make sense for a next book in the series focusing entirely on the overseas perspective.

It is hard to pull off a quality job on part three of a sequel without rock-solid grounding. A keen student, I hope to see a lot more come out of Innosight and the institution of Innovation that is Clayton Christensen.

Seeing What's Next
This is certainly a worthwhile read. The concepts are a great mix of grounded theory and in depth information. There are no earth-shattering concepts, or get rich quick schemes, just sound strategy on how to analyze the industry leaders of the future. One concern that is not addressed is how to determine what will be a disruptive innovation and what will be a poor investment. He does encourage readers to look at nonconsumers, and create a product or service that this group would want to consume. However, I can't help but think that behind every failed innovation is a person who thought they had this dialed in. For example, Christensen cites VOIP as likely for cooption by incumbents, and suggests that one way for start ups to prevail is to offer VOIP as a second line. I am in the telecom industry, and do not see this as a viable option. Even he admits that second lines have been in decline for years, but more than that, those that do have second lines are often the most technologically resistant consumers. They are still using dial up or resisting cell phones. The consumers who are likely to use VOIP do not want to add on a second line, they want to replace their landline. This in an example of the idea for disruption still remaining mysterious. However, for those of us whose job it is to navigate the changing environment, not come up with the idea, this book is a must read.

One Book Too Many
Christensen's two earlier books ("The Innovator's Dilemma," and "The Innovator's Solution") provided great new insights into business history and strategic thinking. "Seeing What's Next" goes on to attempt to demonstrate implementation of these two books' insights, unfortunately with less than total success.

Early in "Seeing What's Next," Christensen uses Dell Computer to illustrate the "Value Chain Evolution" theory's golden rule: Integrate to improve what is "not good enough" (speed, customization, and convenience of PC ordering and acquisition), and outsource what is "more than good enough" (the PC computer's architectural design) - certainly a potentially helpful insight.

"Seeing What's Next" eventually moves on to examining several sectors and making predictions for the future. 1)Education: Christensen sees on-line services from the University of Phoenix (UOP) as an innovation that is likely to disrupt the higher-education market. However, even the UOP has had limited success with this innovation - the vast majority of its services are still provided via bricks-and-mortar classrooms. (Another major UOP problem is that increasing questions are aimed at its credibility - especially the strength of its instructors, and its very low graduation rate.) On the other hand, Christensen probably has it right in seeing community-colleges provide a much greater challenge to pupils currently "over-served" by higher-cost state universities. (This applies to businesses and the general public as well - the vast majority of "research" undertaken at major universities offers very little or no concrete value to society.)

Aviation is another sector examined. Here Christensen sees low-cost Southwest Airlines as in danger of being over-ridden by major airlines - certainly about as far from the ensuing reality as one could get. As for the semiconductor sector - Christensen sees overshot customers (eg. word-processor and spreadsheet users) as becoming vulnerable targets for less expensive/capable processors; again, however, this has been little sign of this. (Christensen's "problem" may be failing to recognize that users want only one operating system/CPU, and that combination should be able to handle most/all existing PC applications. Regardless, it is also noteworthy that Andy Grove, an enthusiastic endorser of Christensen's first two books, does not have an endorsement on this book's back cover.

Healthcare: Christensen observes a "do-it-yourself" trend with home pregnancy tests and glucose monitors. However, both are small components of a relatively trivial healthcare market not likely to sustain major innovation. His third example - cheaper/easier angioplasty replacing cardiac surgery, is an unfortunate one because the latest findings are that angioplasty is not generally an acceptable substitute. Finally, Christensen is totally correct in concluding that many patients are overserved by M.D. providers vs. eg. nurse practitioners - unfortunately, legal constraints are not likely to relax soon in this area. (This also limits "off-shore" provision of X-ray readings, etc., though combining tourism with cheaper Asian healthcare may grow into a much greater market.)

Finally, "Seeing What's Next" considers the wireless communication sector. VOIP is seen as a major challenge - not likely, in my opinion, due to users being physically tied to an on-line computer, and existing wireless providers already able to offer long-distance quite cheaply via national service plans and/or offerings of free calling on weekends and after 7 P.M. during weekdays.

Bottom Line: "Seeing What's Next's" greatest contribution is probably through demonstrating how difficult seeing into the future actually can be.