Product Description

"Nobody approaches the objectivity and precision of Bush and O'Hanlon when it comes to analysis of the military and political dimensions of the Taiwan issue. This is one challenge that U.S. policymakers and military strategists cannot afford to get wrong, and scholars cannot afford to ignore."
- Michael Green, former Senior Director for Asian Affairs National Security Council

The Showdown to Come

In 1995, during a heated discussion about that year's Taiwan crisis, a Chinese general remarked to a U.S. diplomat, "In the end, you care more about Los Angeles than you do about Taipei." In a single sentence, he both questioned the level of America's commitment to a longtime ally and threatened massive, perhaps nuclear, retaliation should the United States intervene militarily on Taiwan's behalf. In the end, President Clinton sent two aircraft carriers to the region, and China ceased its military exercises in the Taiwan Strait. A decade later, however, China is much stronger, both economically and militarily, and it holds a significant amount of America's national debt. If another Taiwan crisis should occur-as it almost certainly will-would China back down?

In A War Like No Other, you'll discover how little it would take to transform the close cooperation and friendly rivalry between the United States and the People's Republic of China into the first-ever shooting war between two nuclear powers. This chilling look into one possible future offers thoughtful advice to both governments on how to reduce the chances of such a nightmare actually occurring. Two Brookings Institution scholars offer specific prescriptions on how the two nations can improve communications, especially in times of crisis; avoid risky behavior, even when provoked; and, above all, remember which buttons not to push.

Product Details

• Amazon Sales Rank: #421984 in Books
• Published on: 2007-03-30
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Binding: Hardcover
• 240 pages

From Publishers Weekly
In dense, academic prose, Brookings Institution scholars O'Hanlon and Bush argue that a war with China is neither as implausible as it might appear nor as inevitable as history would suggest. The likely cause for military intervention, they propose, would come not from China's rise as a regional and global power, nor from the growing threat it poses to the U.S.'s economic strength, nor from its curtailment of human rights-all of which could be addressed diplomatically-but rather the political situation of Taiwan, the semi-autonomous island 100 miles from the mainland, whose independence could upset delicate U.S-China relations. The authors present a number of possible conflict scenarios and discuss the sorts of legislative and diplomatic action that could get the U.S. into them, but wisely avoid bombast by noting regularly that war with China remains unlikely. The only passages of general interest here are those on Taiwanese history; the legislative and diplomatic prescriptions that constitute the majority of the book, while comprehensive and reasonable, will fail to excite even interested lay readers. Professors and lawmakers would do well to read this volume, if only for the reminder that, in this time of seemingly insuperable international dilemma, some problems can still be solved with a bit of level-headed diplomatic maneuvering.
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Review
"A supremely thoughtful, sober assessment of what is one of the most dangerous fault lines in the world today. The authors carefully avoid unduly alarmist assessments, yet convincingly demonstrate that miscalculation and misinformation could produce the unthinkable."
—James B. Steinberg, Dean, Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs and former Deputy National Security Advisor to President Clinton

"A modern classic for those who think seriously about the prospective national security challenges confronting the United States in a dangerous world. It is must reading for everyone who recognizes that the Asia-Pacific region is where the real drama of the 21st Century will play out."
—Kurt M. Campbell, Senior Vice President, Center for Strategic and International Studies

"A War Like No Other provides a riveting case study about grand crisis and the key insights for managing one successfully. We have been managing this crisis between China and Taiwan for some years now; we know the actors, we know the issues, and we even know the flashpoints firsthand. China is a deliberate actor; we should be able to anticipate her actions, reactions, signaling, and potential use of force from her most recent interventions in Korea, India, and Vietnam. These patterns give hope that this crisis can be contained, perhaps someday resolved. Yet, China-Taiwan remains a dangerous standoff, mandating that all, who represent any of the actors, read this study."
—General Eric K. Shinseki, U.S. Army (Retired)

From the Inside Flap
Washington has split between those who think we will eventually go to war with China (mostly conservatives) and those who find these alarums unconvincing (mostly centrists). They've even developed pejoratives for each camp: Panda Sluggers versus Panda Huggers. A War Like No Other argues against both, warning that America and China are closer to war than most people realize, in large part because China and Taiwan could blunder into a conflict that neither side wants. The road from slightest provocation to economically disastrous superpower standoff is a short one.

National security expert Michael O'Hanlon has developed a sterling reputation for clear-eyed analysis, especially for his early and ongoing prescience and accuracy concerning America's involvement in Iraq. A War Like No Other teams him with noted China scholar Richard Bush to assess the threat that keeps them both up at night: the chilling of relations between the United States and China from simply wary to detrimentally antagonistic.

Two decades from now, China will likely be the undisputed number-two global power and, if its phenomenal growth continues, it may well achieve superpower status before the end of the century. Since it began to explore and develop its industrial potential in the early 1980s, it has become one of America's largest trading partners, dependable debt holders, and sources of low-priced goods. It may also become America's most powerful diplomatic, economic, and military rival. How will this complex relationship play out on the world stage?

In A War Like No Other, Brookings scholars Richard Bush and Michael O'Hanlon delve into the dangerous consequences of this new dynamic. Other commentators fear the results of recent alarming conflicts over trade, monetary policy, relations with Iran and North Korea, competition for scarce oil, and even China's growing economic and military strength. Bush and O'Hanlon deftly sort through the issues, putting them in context. Each alone is hardly a credible cause for war. However, each of these could contribute to a more poisonous atmosphere than ever in which to confront the only issue that could really spark conflict: Taiwan. The nebulous status of Taiwan has sparked crises in the past and will continue indefinitely as the most likely source of conflict between China and the United States.

Filled with revealing accounts of past crises, insightful analyses of the ways in which the United States and China often fail to communicate, and controversial prescriptions for managing the inevitable conflicts between a reigning superpower and a rising contender, A War Like No Other is must reading for anyone interested in U.S./China relations, diplomacy, foreign policy, and the fine line between competition and conflict.

Customer Reviews

It's All About Taiwan!
America's reaction to Tiananmen Square, quick victory in the first Persian Gulf War, and Taiwan have changed China from modest growth in military spending to accelerated military modernization and buildup. Its acquisitions (long-range missiles, aerial refueling capabilities, advanced destroyers and submarines - mostly acquired from Russia) cannot be explained simply as preparations for possible war against Taiwan, a mere 100 miles offshore. In addition, when "push comes to shove," China believes we are more interested in Los Angeles than Taiwan. Meanwhile, the FBI believes China has set up over 3,000 "front" companies to acquire military or industrial technology illegally from the U.S.

On the other hand, China has also achieved some very positive steps - fostering economic growth and a very successful anti-poverty program, reduced oppression of its people, and cessation of fomenting Communist takeovers among its neighbors.

The authors list a number of possible causes of war between the U.S. and China, and heavily discount them all - except for the issue of Taiwan. Not only is this a very serious "face" issue for the Chinese government, it has also become one for the U.S. as well.

Bottom Line: "A War Like No Other" is a reasonably good book; however, I greatly prefer "China: Fragile Superpower" by Susan Shirk for its broader perspective.