Product Description

This study examines four alternative scenarios that would result in the unification of the Korean peninsula. The authors describe the defining characteristics of each scenario, potential indicators that would predict specific outcomes, some possible variations in paths to unification, and some operational implications for the U.S. Army under different conditions and circumstances. The four scenarios (peaceful unification, collapse and absorption, unification through armed conflict, and disequilibrium and external intervention) highlight both the increasing vulnerabilities of the North Korean state and the substantial uncertainties that attach to each outcome and to the potential U.S. policy responses. These considerations impose major conceptual, policy, and operational challenges both in the near and middle term and in the postunification peninsular security environment. Each warrants an enhanced analysis and assessment effort, lest U.S. and ROK policymakers find themselves ill prepared for major challenges to alliance management and to the U.S. Army role in a future crisis.

Product Details

• Amazon Sales Rank: #1871746 in Books
• Published on: 1999-07-25
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Binding: Paperback
• 118 pages

From the Publisher
If and when Korean unification occurs, it will constitute one of thedecisive strategic changes in Northeast Asia since the outbreak of theKorean conflict nearly half a century ago. Depending on how variouspolitical, military, economic, and regional factors come into play, theoutcome of the unification process could range from relatively manageableendgames to highly problematic and violent ones. Managingthe results of the unification process will also usher in major newchallenges for the United States, the Republic of Korea (ROK), andthe U.S. Army.This report evaluates four alternative unification scenarios, each withcorresponding characteristics, potential indicators, variations, andoperational implications for the Army. We have labeled these scenariosaccording to their predominant characteristics: (1) integrationand peaceful unification; (2) collapse and absorption; (3) unificationthrough conflict; and (4) disequilibrium and potential externalintervention. By describing the major dimensions of each scenario,we can identify some of the policy and operational challenges thatU.S. and ROK security planners could face under each outcome.The findings in this report summarize and integrate the results of aresearch project on "Korean Unification: Implications for the U.S.Army," sponsored by the Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence, U.S.Army, and conducted in RAND Arroyo Center's Strategy and Doc-trineProgram. The Arroyo Center is a federally funded research anddevelopment center sponsored by the United States Army.