Product Description

Why would a casino try and stop you from losing? How can a mathematical formula find your future spouse? Would you know if a statistical analysis blackballed you from a job you wanted?

Today, number crunching affects your life in ways you might never imagine. In this lively and groundbreaking new book, economist Ian Ayres shows how today's best and brightest organizations are analyzing massive databases at lightening speed to provide greater insights into human behavior. They are the Super Crunchers. From internet sites like Google and Amazon that know your tastes better than you do, to a physician's diagnosis and your child's education, to boardrooms and government agencies, this new breed of decision makers are calling the shots. And they are delivering staggeringly accurate results. How can a football coach evaluate a player without ever seeing him play? Want to know whether the price of an airline ticket will go up or down before you buy? How can a formula outpredict wine experts in determining the best vintages? Super crunchers have the answers. In this brave new world of equation versus expertise, Ayres shows us the benefits and risks, who loses and who wins, and how super crunching can be used to help, not manipulate us.

Gone are the days of solely relying on intuition to make decisions. No businessperson, consumer, or student who wants to stay ahead of the curve should make another keystroke without reading Super Crunchers.

Product Details

• Amazon Sales Rank: #4004 in Books
• Published on: 2007-08-28
• Released on: 2007-08-28
• Number of items: 1
• Binding: Hardcover
• 272 pages

From Publishers Weekly
Yale Law School professor and econometrician Ayres argues in this lively and enjoyable book that the recent creation of huge data sets allows knowledgeable individuals to make previously impossible predictions. He calls the data set analysts super crunchers and discusses the changes they're making to industries like medical diagnostics, air travel pricing, screenwriting and online dating services. Although Ayres presents both sides of this revolution, explaining how the corporate world tries to manipulate consumer behavior and telling consumers how to fight back, his real mission is to educate readers about the basics of statistics and hypothesis testing, spending most of his time in an edifying and entertaining discussion of the use of regression and randomization trials. He frequently asks whether statistical methods are more accurate than the more intuitive conclusions drawn by experts, and consistently concludes that they are. Ayres skillfully demonstrates the importance that statistical literacy can play in our lives, especially now that technology permits it to occur on a scale never before imagined. (Sept. 4)
Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

From AudioFile
The highly technical theories of super crunching are navigated with ease and aplomb in this peppy reading. Ian Ayres explains the importance of economic principles used in conducting research. James Lurie tackles these intricacies of economic data with a narrative style aimed at general listeners. The somewhat dull concept of consolidating vast numbers simultaneously is given vigor by LurieÕs ability to weave the human story behind the various points. Unlike other economic bestsellers, which feature modern case studies, AyresÕs text weaves economic principles across decades and borders, all of which is made comprehensible by the narrator. M.R. © AudioFile 2008, Portland, Maine-- Copyright © AudioFile, Portland, Maine

Review
"In the past, one could get by on intuition and experience. Times have changed. Today, the name of the game is data. Ian Ayres shows us how and why in this groundbreaking book Super Crunchers. Not only is it fun to read, it just may change the way you think."—Steven D. Levitt, author of Freakonomics

"Data-mining and statistical analysis have suddenly become cool.... Dissecting marketing, politics, and even sports, stuff this complex and important shouldn't be this much fun to read."—Wired

"[Ayres's] thesis is provocative: Complex statistical models could be used to market products more intelligently, craft better movies, and solve health-care problems—if only we could get past our statistics phobia."—Portfolio

"When statistics conflict with expert opinion, bet on statistics....Businesses, consumers, and governments are waking up to the power of analyzing enormous tracts of information."—Discover

"Super Crunchers shows that data-driven decisionmaking is not just revolutionizing baseball and business; it's changing the way that education policy, health care reimbursements, even tax regulations are crafted.  Super Crunching is truly reinventing government.  Politicians love to tout policy proposals, but they rarely come back and tell you which ones succeeded and which ones failed.  Data-driven policy making forces government to ask the bottom line question of 'What works.'  That's an approach we can all support."—John Podesta, President of the Center for American Progress

"A lively and yet rigorously careful account of the use of quantitative methods for analysis and decision-making.... Both social scientists and businessmen can profit from this book, while enjoying themselves in the process."—Dr. Kenneth Arrow, Nobel Prize winning economist, and Professor Emeritus at Stanford University

“Ayres’ point is that human beings put far too much faith in their intuition and would often be better off listening to the numbers.... The best stories in the book are about Ayres and other economists he knows, whether they are studying wine, the Supreme Court or jobless benefits.... Ayres himself is one of the [statistical] detectives. He has done fascinating research.”—The New York Times Book Review

"Ian Ayres [is] a law-and-economics guru."—Chronicle of Higher Education

“Lively and enjoyable.... Ayres skillfully demonstrates the importance that statistical literacy can play in our lives, especially now that technology permits it to occur on a scale never before imagined.... Edifying and entertaining."—Publishers Weekly

"Super Crunchers presents a convincing and disturbing vision of a future in which everyday decision-making is increasingly automated, and the role of human judgment restricted to providing input to formulae."—The Economist

"Insightful and delightful!" —Forbes

Customer Reviews

Entertaining, but far from super

This is an easy and mostly entertaining read. The author uses many anecdotes to
persuade us that statistics can be a useful tool for decision making. Some of
the described applications use lots of data and multiple regression. Those are
easier to do now than they used to be, because more data is collected and kept.
Some are trivial. If your company hurts a customer, apologize. You might get
some ideas of thing to do that might help your organization. You will not get
any detailed help about how to implement the improvement, but there is a good
chance there is enough information that some systems person can figure out what
other skills are needed to make the idea work.

There is some discussion of limitations on the methods, and some warnings about
potential abuse, but not enough. Ayres seems to confuse correlation with causation.
He also frequently assumes the sample is representative of the population.
Even when trying to make the sample representative, it often is not. He also
assumes the answer is in the data. Sometimes it is not. Ayres reports a study
concluding widespread point shaving in college basketball because a distribution
at game end did not match the distribution five minutes earlier when a highly
favored team was ahead by about the spread. I have no opinion about the conclusion,
but the simpler explanation of the coach thinking it was late enough to safely
let the weaker players participate more was not considered.

Regression is a powerful tool, but it is easy to misuse. For an ongoing
survey of misuses, see junkfoodscience dot com, a blog. Many of the entries show
the flaws in statistical claims of medical trials. Also try stats dot org.

What you can do with large datasets
The answer is of course: a lot.
And Ian Ayres' book will tell you a little about it.

Supercrunchers are those who use lage datasets
to find patterns in human behaviour, and
predict the future based on these large datasets.

The book informs us that super crunching is on the verge of being
used all over. E.g.
Chess grandmaster Kasparov was no match
for IBMs Deep Blue chess computer,
that stored some 700.000 grandmaster chess games to help find the
winning move.
The IRS could use its data to tell a small business,
if it is spending too much or too little on advertising.
Indeed, the IRS probably has enough data to
make good estimates on whether business, marriages, etc. etc.
will fail - based only on comparison with its existing dataset.

For the paranoid, it is a horror that supermarkets could map your life cycle and predict your next purchases pretty accurately (based on
what other similar customers did).
For the optimist data mining is a good thing and we'll all lead better lives because of it.

Want to write a bestseller about it? Compare your title and some key words with data from a database of books, titlescore.com, containing millions of bestsellers and flops, and you will get your answer.

It all seems pretty straight forward, and the book has some nice examples of what we can expect in the coming years.

-Simon

Weak Book, not original material
This is new? The notion that empirical research is useful has been dealt with in book after book. The book not only recycles stories word for word without quote marks from the New York Times and other publications. There are hundreds of books that show that empirical work can help understand the world. What is new? What is interesting that is new here?