Product Description

In Future Scenarios, permaculture co-originator and leading sustainability innovator David Holmgren outlines four scenarios that bring to life the likely cultural, political, agricultural, and economic implications of peak oil and climate change, and the generations-long era of “energy descent” that faces us.

“Scenario planning,” Holmgren explains, “allows us to use stories about the future as a reference point for imagining how particular strategies and structures might thrive, fail, or be transformed.”

Future Scenarios depicts four very different futures. Each is a permutation of mild or destructive climate change, combined with either slow or severe energy declines. Probable futures, explains Holmgren, range from the relatively benign Green Tech scenario to the near catastrophic Lifeboats scenario.

As Adam Grubb, founder of the influential Energy Bulletin Web site, says, “These aren’t two-dimensional nightmarish scenarios designed to scare people into environmental action. They are compellingly fleshed-out visions of quite plausible alternative futures, which delve into energy, politics, agriculture, social, and even spiritual trends. What they do help make clear are the best strategies for preparing for and adapting to these possible futures.”

Future Scenarios provides brilliant and balanced consideration of the world’s options and will prove to be one of the most important books of the year.

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Product Details

• Amazon Sales Rank: #40690 in Books
• Published on: 2009-04-14
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Binding: Paperback
• 136 pages

Features

• ISBN13: 9781603580892
• Condition: NEW
• Notes: Brand New from Publisher. No Remainder Mark.
• Click here to view our Condition Guide and Shipping Prices

About the Author
David Holmgren is best known as the co-originator with Bill Mollison of the permaculture concept following the publication of Permaculture One in 1978. Since then he has written several more books, developed three properties using permaculture principles, conducted workshops and courses in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and Japan. Within the growing and international permaculture movement, David is respected for his commitment to presenting permaculture ideas through practical projects and teaching by personal example, that a sustainable lifestyle is a realistic, attractive and powerful alternative to dependant consumerism. As well as constant involvement in the practical side of permaculture, David is passionate about the philosophical and conceptual foundations for sustainability which are highlighted in his latest book, Permaculture: Principles and Pathways Beyond Sustainability. With this book already on its second print run, and an increasingly high profile as a public speaker, David Holmgren provides leadership with his refreshing and unorthodox approach to the environmental issues of our time.

David lives with his partner Su Dennett and their son Oliver at "Melliodora", a one-hectare permaculture demonstration site at Hepburn Springs, Central Victoria, Australia. Visit his web site at http://.www.holmgren.com.au.

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Customer Reviews

Holmgren's 'Future Scenarios' - an essential planning resource
I would recommend this short book to anyone who has the task of creating a workshop for a community to develop strategies to deal with the converging threats of Peak Oil and Climate Change. Or indeed for anyone, who wants to understand these issues.

It would be an ideal planning resource for a rural based intentional community and in particular one that has embraced permaculture principles.

The book is short but dense, in the sense that every sentence and diagram needs to be considered and understood.

David Holmgren explores the four scenarios that could each represent our most likely future, depending on how well and how quickly the world's political leaders deal with this greatest challenge humanity has ever faced.

This quote from the back cover explains it well: "Future Scenarios depicts four very different futures. Each is a permutation of mild or destructive climate change, combined with either slow or severe energy declines. Probable futures, explains Holmgren, range from the relatively benign 'Green Tech' scenario to the near catastrophic `Lifeboats' scenario." Future Scenarios: How Communities Can Adapt to Peak Oil and Climate Change

Encouragingly, the G8 have recently adopted the target of reducing emissions recommended by the world's climate scientists for not exceeding the critical 2ºC of average global warming ([...]). It remains to be seen whether individual countries will do the same.

Packed with invaluable applications for survival
FUTURE SCENARIOS: HOW COMMUNITIES CAN ADAPT TO PEAK OIL AND CLIMATE CHANGE should be in every general lending library's collection: it comes from a permaculture co-originator and sustainability innovator and shows how to adapt to the cultural, political and economic implications of two forces that will shape our world in years to come: peak oil and climate change. Packed with invaluable applications for survival, this is not to be missed.