Product Description

The Great Bust Ahead is a concise, straight to the point short book laying out in stark terms the case for a coming depression of historically unprecedented magnitude. It will be worse than the 1930s, beginning nominally in 2012, but perhaps as early as 2009-2010 and lasting up to thirteen years. Centered on hard fact demographics, the book boldly claims that the data presented are so irrefutable, that the outcome predicted by the book is equally as irrefutable. The compelling proof presented accurately accounts for the detailed trend of the economy from 1920 to today (something never before accomplished), and projects out to 2030. The book is very easy to read and understand, and requires no prior knowledge of economics. Down to earth things the average person can do to prepare for what is coming are covered. A summary of the catastrophic domestic social and international consequences is offered.

January 2009 Update:
1. First, read the 2007 Update below.
2. 2008 was the victim of a self inflicted sub-prime financial crisis. This has nothing to do with the demographics based massive depression that is yet to come, as described in the book. The sub-prime consequences are however very similar though mild so far compared to what is coming our way. The book clearly spelled out that along the way unpredictable short-term (1 to 3 years) disruptive events could happen. The sub-prime crisis is just that. It should be regarded as the warmer upper or hors d'oeuvre for the big one that is now rapidly closing in on us all.
3. The great unknown at this point is whether the sub-prime based crisis will drag on beyond 2009 and then blend into the demographics based massive decline which, per the book, could begin as early as 2009-10. Being short-term by definition, this period is totally unpredictable.
4. There is the strong possibility that we will see an interim recovery manifested as a last hurrah rally in 2009 of perhaps 30% on the Dow after a new low of around 7,000. However, this is very speculative. The only historical certainty is that in the long-term the Dow always returns to the demographic. This lends some credence to such a rally as the immutable demographic, as you can see from the chart, remains in a very strong upswing as it moves toward its 2012 peak before crashing. Also waiting in the wings ready to surge back into the markets are trillions of dollars earning very little in money market funds.

October 2007 Update: In 2002 when this book was published, in addition to the massive depression beginning around the end of the decade, it forecast:
1. The economy, as reflected by the DJIA, would resume its upwards march in late 2002 or 2003. This is exactly what happened.
2. The DJIA would have a snapback to 13,000 to 14,000 and the FTSE to 6,000 to 7,000 by 2004, but delayed possibly by wars/politics/terrorism/scandals. This is exactly what has happened. Although the full snapback has been delayed for the reasons described, the DJIA has now closed over 14,100 and the FTSE over 6,700.
3. The DJIA returns from 2003 to 2012 would average a historically long-term normal of 7% to 8%. So far, with the delayed full snapback for the reasons described, DJIA actual returns have averaged a more modest 5.8%, as would be expected.
4. Interest rates would increase from 2003 onwards. This is exactly what has happened.

Product Details

• Amazon Sales Rank: #85490 in Books
• Published on: 2002-11-25
• Original language: English
• Binding: Paperback
• 64 pages

From the Publisher
If there ever was a book that should be read by the entire adult population, this is it. The events described in The Great Bust Ahead will be the greatest story of the first quarter of the twenty-first century, if not the century. All of our lives are going to be dramatically affected beginning in just a few years from now. The depression of epic proportions that is predicted has THIRTY MILLION unemployed and stock market losses of over eighteen TRILLION dollars. The book leaves you with the conviction that for the first time you understand what the economy is all about. Everything presented in the book is so factual, so unchallengeable, it is hard to know what to say other than "go read it" and then start preparing as best you can.

About the Author
Dan Arnold had a fifteen year management and consultant career with General Electric. He then started and ran a successful manufacturing company in Santa Clara County California for ten years with ongoing major accounts that included GM in the US and Canada, Walmart, Kmart, the US Army and the US Postal service. After being bought out by a larger company Dan focused on investment and understanding the economy's long-term trends. This work lead directly to his shocking book.

Excerpt. © Reprinted by permission. All rights reserved.
INTRODUCTION

The entire purpose of this book is to warn and help prepare the average person, family, business and institution for the greatest economic event of our lives that is now steadily closing in on us. It is a once in a lifetime event, so there is little national memory that such an event is possible. It is the economic one hundred year flood. We are now just several years away from the greatest depression in American history. It will be several times greater than the 1930s. No maybe or perhaps. It is as unavoidable as it is certain.

The catastrophic events forecast with such clarity and certainty in the pages that follow are derived almost entirely from data that is in publicly available government files ranging from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to the CIA and the INS. Anyone with the very extensive time required, the inclination and good computer database skills can establish for themselves the veracity of everything presented in this book. The ideas and data presented are simple to understand. No degree in economics is needed here. The underlying concepts that lead methodically and relentlessly to the shocking results are so compelling that they are, to all intents and purposes, unchallengeable. If this seems an outrageous claim, you won’t think so by the end of this brief and to the point book.

You will be shown that the fundamental trend of the economy has almost nothing whatever to do with what you hear about all the time, such as interest rates, inflation, budget deficits, the dollar or who is in the White House or who controls Congress. Perhaps you have noticed the latter. A much, much more powerful, unstoppable force is the real trendsetter, and it is really so simple to understand. Every major economic event since 1920 will be easily and convincingly accounted for. It will seem so obvious once you’ve understood it, that what is forecast for the coming years will appear to be all but cast in stone . . . and in fact it is.

Customer Reviews

Apocalypse maybe!
This book, written specifically for citizens of the US and the UK, is one of the most sobering I have ever read. To the layman at least, it appears to be argued logically enough, the basic idea being that in the western economies the spending of individuals constitute the lion's share of GDP. In the next few years some 100m baby boomers in the US will start to leave the highest spending age group (45-54). As people nearing retirement tend to reduce their spending and start to withdraw their savings from more risky investments such as the stock market, this will cause a depression even deeper than the 1930s and stock markets to dive. The book forecasts that some 30m may become unemployed in the US alone. (A similar picture emerges in Japan though the age band is lower.) Almost every major stock market move in the last century or so can be accounted for by such demographics. These apocalyptic events are forecast to happen any time from 2009-2013 and it is recommended people be out of the stock markets by 2010 at the latest. The depression may last to the mid 2020s.
I just wonder how globalisation may affect the situation, both in terms of increased exposure of western companies to Asian markets and the vast numbers of increasingly wealthy Asian middle class who might invest some of their spare cash (and there may be an awful lot of it) in foreign markets. It must have been somewhat difficult for western individuals to invest directly in Asian markets, and vice versa, even in 1987 but in 1929 it must have been all but impossible.
I cannot agree either with some of the steps recommended to protect oneself either. If currencies weaken then treasury bonds may not quite be the saviour they are portrayed. The traditional safe havens in times of turmoil - precious metals such as gold and silver - are not even mentioned. This may be because they are traditionally associated with inflation. However, they also come into their own in times of currency crises and "funny money" i.e. when the money supply threatens hyper-inflation. Investing in foreign stock markets such as India and China, nations which should continue to grow strongly for the foreseeable future surely should also be considered. With such strong growth in Asia, I find it difficult to believe another of the book's predictions which is that the oil price may possibly fall as low as $5 a barrel!
I consider this book - and others like it - to be a warning as to what might happen rather than what will. Nevertheless, if it prompts individuals to review their investments and to diversify accordingly it will be no bad thing. I just fear so many people may be so indebted for years to come that they won't be able to.

The Alpha Group that Leads the Herd
Mr. Arnold's title attracted my attention because I, like many financial observers, do see a depression on the horizon. His use of the 45-54 year old baby boomer demographic is interesting and echos certain ideas of Elliott Wave Theory and Socionomics.

The author's conclusions, formed using a relationship between U.S. population growth and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, support a coming financial crisis of tsunami proportions, but his optimism that things will not erupt until the beginning of the next decade and his investment recommendations for the immediate future are arguable.

A purchaser of this hour-long read would be advised to immerse himself in Robert Prechter's, Conquer the Crash and Fiancial Reckoning Day by Bonner and Wiggin. These books better illustrate the world as it is, bringing together the influence of world money supplies, gold, interest rates, world politics and, very importantly, social mood.

Where Daniel Arnold sees the correlation of the population and the Dow Jones, Prechter documents the predictive value of the Dow in measuring social mood. I would allow that Mr. Arnold has accurately pegged the 45-54 year olds as the alpha group that leads the population's mood, or herd mentality, as a result of its purchasing and investing power.

Read this book. Look at the charts. Just don't make any immediate investment decisions without considering that our world is on the verge of a massive "asset devaluation" that will transcend stocks, bonds, real estate, and for a time, precious metals. The looming possibility of a world-wide liquidity crisis triggering liquidation of assets to cover the costs of mounting debt, should be of greater concern.

Arnold issues several warnings, should his predictions come true, and offers a number of actions individuals may take. Most notably, he supports why personal property most likely will be at risk to theft or destruction in an environment of rising unemployment and rising crime, but on page 51 advocates, "even if you would not support gun-control during healthy times, consider supporting gun control legislation to help take the dangerous edge off the crime wave that will hit during the depression." Libertarians and 2nd Amendment supporters will have a real hard time with that one.

A CONCISE, EASY TO UNDERSTAND, BLUNT WARNING
Like most reviewers, I found this brief book to be a highly believable warning of the coming huge depression. How can you argue with a thesis that accounts for the US economy's ups and downs in detail for nearly a century!! Unlike the few, (like Special K below), who completely miss the key message, IT IS DEMOGRAPHICS that controls everything. Any economist will tell you that 70% of GDP is simply us (we are the demographics) spending our paychecks and, as Arnold points out, it's more like 90% when we add the government's spending of our taxes which they take from our paychecks. Arnold's thesis is a better developed version of noted economist Dent's theory that specific demographics always control where the economy is going. It's not really theory anymore - it's plain commonsense, which is what comes out in Arnold's book. Dent also predicts a massive "Mother of all Depressions" starting around 2010. Special K and his ilk, who are quite happy I'm sure to (correctly) attribute the coming Social Security crisis solely to demographics but want to insist that the economy in general cannot possibly be, are the ones that are going to lose everything in what's coming. Go read Arnold to understand (concisely WITHOUT 200 extra pages of added irrelevant "fluff") that demographics is really all that counts - and why. My God, he even shows how the Japanese near depression from 1990 to 2003 was caused by exactly the same demographic data within Japan. What more do you want? Read it.