Product Description

Humans are gambling animals—and not just when we invest in the stock market. Every time we take an action—deciding which job applicant to hire, which product to launch— we are betting our time, reputation, effort, and money in the hope of achieving some future result.

Some people base their business bets on dumb luck, but the great ones—like Bill Gates, Warren Buffett, and Oprah Winfrey—make their own luck.

Eileen C. Shapiro and Howard H. Stevenson have compressed the complex skills of making your own luck—which they call predictive intelligence—into twelve easy and practical steps. These steps will get you the results you want with the least risk and the most upside. They will help you take smarter risks without the "analysis paralysis" that gets so many people and companies in trouble.

Most books about strategy are dull and loaded with jargon. Make Your Own Luck is full of jokes, brain teasers, anecdotes, and unexpected case studies from the Battle of Antietam to the diaper war between Huggies and Pampers. It teaches readers how to build their ability to bet smart and how to use this ability to win in business and in other areas of life.

Product Details

• Amazon Sales Rank: #727565 in Books
• Published on: 2005-05-05
• Released on: 2005-05-09
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Binding: Hardcover
• 272 pages

About the Author
Eileen C. Shapiro enjoyed a long career at McKinsey & Co. and is now president of The Hillcrest Group Inc., a strategic consulting firm. She is the author of Fad Surfing in the Boardroom.
Howard H. Stevenson is the Sarofim-Rock Professor at Harvard Business School and senior associate provost for Harvard University.

Customer Reviews

If almost every decision is a bet, how to improve the odds?
Frankly, I did not know quite what to expect as I began to read this book but it soon became obvious that Shapiro and Stevenson have much of value to say about the relevance of gambling to business organizations as well as to an individual's business career and personal life. They offer a concept which they call "Predictive Intelligence" (PI): "the ability to act in the face of uncertainty to bring about desired results." It involves a process which begins with recognizing whether or not one is in a betting situation. If so, they recommend "The Gambler's Dozen," steps by which to increase one's PI and thereby improve the odds when "placing" business bets, career bets, and life bets. If all this seems hokey, blame me. It really isn't. Shapiro and Stevenson are quite serious when asserting that "every purposive action is a bet; one acts now on the expectation or hope, but not the certainty, of the results that will be achieved in the future." I agree. Given that premise, it is highly desirable to increase one's PI. Shapiro and Stevenson explain how.

Each of the steps which comprise "The Gambler's Dozen" is carefully positioned within the OOPA! process (i.e. Orient, Organize, Predict, and Act!) and for each, the authors create a context with equal care. Step #6, for example, should be initiated only after having completed the previous five Steps. Perhaps the easiest way to grasp Shapiro and Stevenson's methodology is to think of it as a sequence ot questions to be answered:

1. What future (i.e. desirable results) am I trying to create?
2. Will playing this "game" be worth it for me?
3. Do I need to make a radical shift now?
4. Whose help will I need and how must I obtain it?
5. How much "magic" will my current bets require?
6. If my current plan fails (or is insufficient), what is my Plan B?
7. What's the future space I'm betting into?
8. What are my best "left side" bets?
9. How much risk can I shed or shift?
10. What's the "it" I'm betting into?
11. Will I then be locked into a tighter set of follow-up bets?
12. How will I know when to call it quits?

Over a period of time, through repeated use, this checklist will become almost second nature to "players" on Wall Street and in Las Vegas as well as to those making complicated career decisions and to executives who must decide, for example, whether or not to introduce a new product or service.

In Blink, Malcolm Gladwell suggests that many of the best decisions are made instinctively, without much (if any) "homework," analysis, verification, etc. I agree. However, what Gladwell really doesn't consider in much depth is the fact that many "made in the blink of an eye" decisions reflect extensive prior experience in comparable situations. For example, many decisions in combat or in emergency rooms have life-or-death implications and must be made almost instantaneously. A master automotive mechanic may need only to listen to a running engine or to drive a vehicle a short distance before knowing almost immediately what a given problem is. Shapiro and Stevenson would add that gamblers seated at a Blackjack table or located around a Craps table in a casino have only a few seconds to place a bet. Those who understand and have followed "The Gambler's Dozen" have neither more nor less time than does anyone else but they ARE better informed to take smarter risks. Do they always win? Of course not.

This is a thoughtful, eloquent, and entertaining book. Its recommendations are eminently practical. "The Gambler's Dozen" concept has almost unlimited applications. True, you can place smart bets (i.e. make excellent decisions) in all areas of your life without Shapiro and Stevenson's assistance...but why take that chance?

A Book for Serious Study
Although in previous reviews, the word "easy" is used, the value of this book is found by taking the time to give it serious study. "Make Your Own Luck" is not a simple read with slap-your-head insight at the end of each chapter. Rather, it provides a step-by-step methodology that, if you understand and follow it, increases the odds of your success.

Even though I'm a highly productive person, prior to buying this book, my thoughts and actions related to a business plan were scattered and unproductive. Based on my anxiety, I instantly understood the value of "The Gambler's Dozen Predictive Map." This technique shows how to match goals (bets) against probability (the unknown), a process so clarifying that it inspired me to created a software application so I could easily use this technique on a wide-range of issues.

I just finished studying the concept of "risk splits." After mastering the Predictive Map, it still took a few hours to wrap my mind around what the authors were describing; not because they are unclear, but because I've never before cast my thoughts using the patterns that they suggest. What I learned is that the hardest thing about making winning business decisions is understanding the impact of the future. By employing "risk splits," I can now look back from the future to analyze today, which is a major shift in my thinking process.

I'm starting to define my "It," a task of concisely describing my business that I've put off for the past year. As I'm a writer and a programmer, describing objectives is easy for me. In this case, however, I've come to realize that the uncontrollable elements revealed in my Predictive Map increased my anxiety and scrambled my brain. In other words, without employing "magic thinking" (more commonly called "BS"), I didn't know enough about my own project to make a meaningful statement, or properly invest my time and money (called "marbles" in Luck-speak) to make it come to life.

A must read
This book is a must read for anyone who is serious about improving the odds that their actions will produce the intended results.

The book has at least four things going for it:
* The authors' deep, relevant experience in business, business theory and real-world decision making.
* A practical, straightforward approach to acting in the face of uncertainty -- based on the sequential application of 12 skills and processes that, taken together, should improve anyone's "predictive intelligence."
* Stories -- lots of engaging, memorable stories that bring the process to life.
* Interactive elements that allow you to test your understanding of the material.

For me, Make Your Own Luck has been more than just another good business book. As the CEO of a start-up business, I and my associates face more than our share of uncertainty. And, given our limited resources, the consequences of bad bets can be particularly unwelcome.

We faced just such a situation a month ago when an important part of our business was underperforming. So, we turned to Make Your Own Luck and quickly realized that the source of our problems laid in steps 5 and 6 of the Gambler's Dozen, where we had relied on too much "magic" while failing to deal with an "elephant in the living room" (read the book and you will understand). Fortunately, we had a Plan B (also covered in step 6) and we are back on track.

The book's advice was direct and effective - almost as though we had Shapiro and Stevenson on our Board asking tough questions and offering possible solutions. Like I said, it is a must read.