Product Description

You live in this world. You use oil. You must read this book.

The situation is alarming and irrefutable: within thirty years, even by conservative estimates, we will have burned our way through most of the oil that is readily available to us. Already, the costly side effects of dependence on fossil fuel are taking their toll. Even as oil-related conflict threatens entire nations, individual consumers are suffering from higher prices at the gas pump, rising health problems, and the grim prospect of long-term environmental damage.
In this frank and balanced investigation, Paul Roberts offers a timely wake-up call. He talks to both oil optimists and oil pessimists, delves deep into the economics and politics of oil, and considers the promises and pitfalls of alternatives such as wind power, hybrid cars, and hydrogen. A new afterword brings the book up to the minute. Brisk, immediate, and accessible, this is essential reading for anyone who uses oil, which is to say every one of us.

Product Details

• Amazon Sales Rank: #25569 in Books
• Published on: 2005-04-05
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Binding: Paperback
• 416 pages

Amazon.com Review
The End of Oil is a "geologic cautionary tale for a complacent world accustomed to reliable infusions of cheap energy." The book centers around one irrefutable fact: the global supply of oil is being depleted at an alarming rate. Precisely how much accessible (not to mention theoretical) oil remains is debatable, but even conservative estimates mark the peak of production in decades rather than centuries. Which energy sources will replace oil, who will control them, and how disruptive to the current world order the transition from one system to the next will be are just a few of the big questions that Paul Roberts attempts to answer in this timely book.

As Roberts makes abundantly clear, the major oil players in the world wield their enormous economic and political power in order to maintain the status quo. Of course, they get plenty of help from the tens of millions of consumers, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, who guzzle oil as if there is an unlimited supply. And this demand shows no sign of abating--nearly half of the world's population lives without the benefits of fossil fuels and they desperately want to be among the haves. In countries such as China and India, where energy systems are already breaking down, Roberts discusses how they are looking to oil to fuel their race for development, in many cases ignoring environmental considerations altogether.

Though there is much to be pessimistic about, Roberts does uncover some positive developments, such as the race for alternative energy sources, notably hydrogen fuel cells, which could help to ease us off of our oil dependence before a full-blown energy crisis occurs. No one book could cover every aspect of what Roberts calls "arguably the most serious crisis ever to face industrial society," but The End of Oil is a remarkably informative and balanced introduction to this pressing subject. --Shawn Carkonen

From Publishers Weekly
All economic activity is rooted in the energy economy, which means a substantial portion of the current world economy is linked to the production and distribution of oil. But what will happen, Roberts asks, when the well starts to run dry? Walking readers through the modern energy economy, he suggests that grim prospect may not be as far off as we'd like to think and points out how political unrest could disrupt the world's oil supply with disastrous results. But that could be the least of our worries; some of Roberts's most persuasive passages describe an almost inevitable future shaped by global warming, especially as rapidly industrializing countries like China begin to replicate the pollution history of the U.S. Some signs of hope are visible, he believes, especially in Europe, but the stumbling progress of potential alternatives such as hydrogen power or fuel cells is additional cause for concern. And though the current administration's energy policy gets plenty of criticism, Roberts (a regular contributor to Harper's) saves some of his harshest barbs for American consumers, described as "the least energy-conscious people on the planet." If the government won't create stricter fuel efficiency standards, he argues, blame must be placed equally on our eagerness to drive around in gas-guzzling SUVs and on corporate lobbying. Stressing the dire need to act now to create any meaningful long-term effect, this measured snapshot of our oil-dependent economy forces readers to confront unsettling truths without sinking into stridency. This book may very well become for fossil fuels what Fast Food Nation was to food or High and Mighty to SUVs.
Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

From The New Yorker
This dense compendium explores a troubling paradox: the more energy we use, the richer we become, but spiralling consumption also speeds us closer to the economic havoc that will result from the depletion of oil and gas reserves. For political, cultural, and economic reasons (our current energy infrastructure is worth ten trillion dollars), alternatives such as hydrogen, solar, and wind power resist widespread development. Roberts's outspoken but even-handed account closes with four crystal-ball scenarios. In the rosiest, breakthroughs in renewable energy spur a decline in fossil-fuel use; in the direst, Arab resentment at the overthrow of Saddam Hussein leads to the downfall of the Saudi and Kuwaiti regimes, the price of oil rises to fifty dollars a barrel, and the unprepared American economy is left in tatters.
Copyright © 2005 The New Yorker

Customer Reviews

Excellent and thorough book, misleading title
The title of the book makes it sound like an alarmist clamour concerned with peak oil. This couldn't be further from the truth. It is instead a comprehensive overview of the whole shebang: the energy crisis and the shape of things to come. Not only oil, but other hydrocarbon fuels, hydrogen, nuclear, wind, solar, energy efficiency and the economic implications of all the above are discussed, in a sober and impartial manner. Roberts does not appear to be lobbying for any particular energy source, in fact, he details the great leaps currently made in wind farms, fuel cells, clean coal and solar power, but is quick to point out the practical shortcomings, economic considerations and incredible technical challenges.

The book is rife with well-backed claims, interesting (if unsettling) facts and cogent arguments. I also found the important history lessons on the emergence of the hydrocarbon economy and the 1973 oil embargo very informative and interesting (do take into account, however, that this is from a lay reader's perspective).

Some reviewers note that the book quickly became a bit awkwardly out of date. This is true to some extent. The "worst case" scenario where oil reaches $50/barrel and sends the world economy plunging now seems like a bright picture. Another case in point is where Roberts predicts that since US interference in Iraq to "secure" oil supply caused more harm than good through disruption, Iraqi oil exports will essentially never rise above pre-war levels. This turned out to be wrong: it did in fact shatter that barrier in 2007.

A commendable aspect of the book is how Roberts courageously and continuously lambastes the Bush administration, the automotive industry, the coal lobby and other major hydrocarbon stakeholders, but at the same time acknowledges that the massive asset inertia of the current energy industry makes lowering emissions and improving efficiency an immense economic and pragmatic challenge. These kinds of objective analyses almost go as far as watering down the author's plea: sometimes the reader may get the impression that there's enough ammunition in the book to argue both for complacency and immediate action.

Still an excellent primer on the economics of hydrocarbons and alternatives
This book was published about four years ago, and it is interesting to compare some of its future projections with the current reality. The worse case scenario envisioned in the last chapter has oil going to $50 a barrel, a far cry from the habitual $100 or more for a barrel now, not to mention a high of almost $150. The United States has arrived at the point of sending on the order of 700 billion dollars a year overseas to mostly unstable governments. Yet, despite what in the context of this book would be a horrifying emergency situation, the winds of change have been very slow to make much of a difference. The entrenched oil interests, which the author does not underestimate, have kicked into gear; the Bush Administration has battened down the hatches and basically all they have to say is "drill! drill! drill!". Oil industry influence continues to do its work putting the breaks on renewables: tax credits have not been extended by Congress.

A case made here is that almost all of the easy oil has been exploited. Oil is only produced in Nature under special circumstances. Organic material has to be buried and then cooked in a narrow temperature range (100-135 degrees C). Then, it has to to be confined by rock formations so that it does not leak away into nothing. Worldwide, there is estimated to be 600 geological systems where oil can be extracted for commercial uses. Of that, about 400 have been explored and the remaining lie in hard-to-reach areas such as the Arctic and continental shelves. OPEC has clearly emerged the winner in the battle for easy oil, and has left the big oil companies and most of the non-OPEC world desperately scrambling to find new supplies. The likelihood that enough oil can be extracted from costly out-of-the-way places to compete with the power that OPEC can exert in the marketplace is not great, to say the least. In other words, drilling in costly, remote places will not make a dent anytime soon in the 700 billion dollars that the U.S. pays every year for its oil import bill.

Time is not on our side and the subject is much larger than just finding oil and dealing with OPEC. It concerns not only the use of oil but the use of all hydrocarbons. Just how much carbon dioxide can the atmosphere tolerate before serious disruptions occur to life on planet earth? The author cites experts who maintain that 550ppm might be a tipping point and that we are speeding toward that state. Of particular concern is the developing world - China and India - and the breakneck pace in which dirty fuels, namely coal, are being burned in order to grow emerging economies. The author asserts that the developing world will never take a leadership role in developing alternative energies. They cannot afford to invest except in the quickest and dirtiest. The rich countries, particularly the United States, will have to take the lead.

The author reviews the positives and negatives of alternative energy: hydrogen, wind and solar. Wind and solar offer growth opportunities in the near term, but are problematic as dependable sources because of their intermittency. Hydrogen may work as a substitute for oil sometime in the future but not in the near future. A very important factor in reducing hydrocarbon use is efficiency and conservation. In the 1980s energy efficiency was a significant factor in quelling OPEC's power to raise prices, but energy efficiency was a victim of its own success and Ronald Reagan moved to shutdown such efforts because of the free market meddling.

The big question concerns the role of government - particularly the United States and the rich countries - in instituting a price on carbon and encouraging the development of alternative fuels and "bridging" solutions. Will the world act proactively with a plan to move away from hydrocarbons or will it only react after disasters? If free market supply siders have their way and carbon is never recognized as having an economic cost, there will not be an economic incentive not to use cheap hydrocarbons; and if government does not step in and aid research and development for alternatives, it's less likely that in the near future the private sector will find enough economic incentives to make energy breakthroughs. Then, China and India will have no alternative but to continue to burn dirty fossil fuels.

In enshrining the free markets and the economics of supply, the U.S. will most likely be involved in more overseas conflicts and wars, particularly in the Middle East. Despite the way politicians downplay the matter, the two wars the U.S. has fought in Iraq have both been about opening up the supply of oil. If oil continues to be the life blood of the economy, then the forces that protect that oil will become more militant in protecting that crucial supply especially from the Middle East. If the Saudi royal family loses control to fundamentalists, the stage will be set for another war.

the oil end
this is a very intertesting book for me because present a high perfomance for the our future