Why you should examine your financial situation right now.

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Product Description

For over fifteen years, New York Times bestselling author Harry S. Dent, Jr., has been uncannily accurate in predicting the financial future. In his three previous works, Dent predicted the financial recession of the early nineties, the economic expansion of the mid-nineties, and the financial free-for-all of 1998-2000.

The Next Great Bubble Boom -- part crystal ball, part financial planner -- offers a comprehensive forecast for the next two decades, showing new models for predicting the future behavior of the economy, inflation, large- and small-cap stocks, bonds, key sectors, and so on. In taking a look at past booms and busts, Dent compares our current state to that of the crash of 1920-21, and the years ahead of us to the Roaring Twenties. Dent gives advice on everything from investment strategies to real estate cycles, and shows not only how bright our future will be but how best to profit from it.

Dent gives us all something to look forward to, including:

• The Dow hitting 40,000 by the end of the decade

• The Nasdaq advancing at least ten times from its October 2001 lows to around 13,500, and potentially as high as 20,000 by 2009

• Another strong advance in stocks in 2005, with a significant correction into around September/October 2006

• The Great Boom resurging into its final and strongest stage in 2007, and even more fully in 2008, lasting until late 2009 to early 2010

Dent's amazing ability to track and forecast our financial future is renowned, and here he takes that ability to the next level, showing not only what our economy will look like but also how it will affect us as individuals, as organizations, and as a culture. From the upcoming wealth revolution to the essential principles of entrepreneurial success, the book describes a new society where economic and philanthropic development go hand in hand.

In The Next Great Bubble Boom, Dent shows not only how the economic growth of the late 1990s was a prelude to the true great boom right around the corner but how all of us can reap its benefits.

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Product Details

• Amazon Sales Rank: #145125 in Books
• Published on: 2006-01-24
• Number of items: 1
• Binding: Paperback
• 384 pages

Review
David Bach

New York Times bestselling author of The Automatic Millionaire

Nobody called the nineties boom and bubble like Harry Dent, and now he is calling for another unexpected bull market. All investors should take notice.

From the Inside Flap
Harry S. Dent has been among the most successful forecasters of his time: His books The Great Boom Ahead and The Roaring 2000s predicted the 1990s boom ahead of anyone else.

In this new, provocative look at the coming years, Dent again casts his discerning contrarian eye on what he sees as the good times to come—and the woes to follow. Among his key predictions:

• A third and final bubble takes the Dow to 35,000 to 40,000 and the Nasdaq to 13,000 by late 2009 or early 2010.

• A second technology boom brings cellular, Internet, and broadband connections to 90% of U.S. households by 2009.

• Inflation falls into early 2006 and rises mildly into 2009; then we see deflation between 2010 and 2023.

• Another devastating crash occurs between 2010 and 2012, which ushers in a thirteen-year bear market into 2022.

• Technology, financial services, health care, and Asia will be the best sectors from 2005 to 2009. Long-term bonds, health care, and Asia will be the best after 2009.

Excerpt. © Reprinted by permission. All rights reserved.
Prologue: The New Science

How Simple, Predictable Principles Drive Complex Change

We are all reacting to the "great bubble" in the stock market and business and its collapse in the early 2000s, wondering why we could have been so stupid to have believed in it and if we will see growth like this again for many decades. The common wisdom is that once you've seen a "bubble" it's all over for many years or decades. But the economic and stock market recovery from late 2002 into early 2004 has caused more people to wonder if this bull market is not going to continue.

We have a clear answer: There will be another great bull market into the end of this decade that is likely to be even stronger than the 1990s bull market.

In this book we will explain why the current perception that "we've seen a bubble burst and it's over" is not true when it comes to technology bubbles, why technology bubbles are different from other bubbles in history -- and why such bubbles as well as strong consolidations and "tech wrecks" like those we have recently seen are necessary to major advances in human progress throughout history.

The truth is that there are at least two bubbles before a final peak in a major new technology expansion cycle is reached. We are forecasting the least suspected but greatest bull market in history -- similar to the greatest bull market in U.S. history that occurred from 1922 to 1929 (the Roaring Twenties) after a very similar "technology" bubble and crash from late 1919 into early 1922. We have always compared this decade to the Roaring Twenties, and the truth is that decade started off almost exactly like this one.

Scientists and economists are experts in looking at a very complex world and coming up with complex explanations for it. But we often know different from our common-sense experience. Human beings have their own individual strengths and weaknesses and use them to survive as best they can. The people we know more often than not do predictable things most of the time, just like the planets predictably revolve around the sun, and the sun comes up every morning and the tides come and go, and so on. When many human beings do such predictable things in large numbers we can predict events such as when they will die on average -- as life insurance actuaries have been doing for many decades.

But now for the first time since the early 1980s, when the first annual Consumer Expenditure Surveys were conducted by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, we can increasingly predict when people will do all types of things from growing up (at great expense to parents, the government, and businesses) to workforce entry (where they finally become productive) to earning to spending to borrowing to saving to retirement, as well as when they spend money on all types of things from cradle to grave. It simply wasn't possible to know these statistics before the recent information age began.

But in broader terms, in recent decades information technologies have allowed us to analyze all types of phenomena from the "big bang" and the evolution of our universe to the evolution of our planet and all of the flora and fauna that have developed over millions of years to the DNA code and how humans have developed and migrated around the earth over the last 80,000 years. Although we have always wanted to believe what we wanted to about the past to fit our personal, ethnic, and religious ideologies, we can increasingly see the greater reality of evolution and economic progress over long periods of time today. We have, predictably, fought most new scientific insights throughout history, such as the earth being round and revolving around the sun, but that hasn't changed reality. The people that have most understood reality throughout history have progressed the most, and even more so in recent decades! For the first time in history, from many angles, we can see where we have come from, how we have evolved, and where we are likely going -- from the longest- to the shortest-term cycles. For a more in-depth analysis of

human evolutionary cycles, you can download a free special report on our website at www.hsdent.com at "The Long View" under "Key Concepts."

The Attitude That "No One Can Forecast the Future"

Today in economics and in many fields of politics, sociology, and science, there is an attitude that "nobody can predict the future past a certain point" -- there are too many complex variables that could impact it -- hence we can only learn from the past. But this is obviously nonsense as more and more fields of science have become capable of predicting more phenomena for centuries as our knowledge of the universe has grown exponentially. We have been saying something very different in economics for more than two decades with greater degrees of long-term predictability than other economists. Increasing advances in many fields of science are only validating this concept. There are more and more simple cause-and-effect factors that we can identify from evolutionary stages to planetary cycles to genes to early-life character developments in psychology to predictable life cycles in humans, natural systems, and technologies. And the most fundamental factors we have found to be critical in economics are so large that they overwhelm smaller factors and more random events.

No matter what we learn, there will always be factors that we don't understand yet, seemingly random factors -- such as the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. But the truth is that even such factors may not be as random as we think. Our research has shown that incidents such as 9/11 are much more likely to occur when other factors, such as the economy, are weak or in down cycles -- much like Hitler and World War II, which followed the Great Depression. Even the weather has become more predictable, both short term and long term, in recent decades. We can now track the climate and the movement of the continents over millions of years through drilling into glacial ice formations and many other means. And climate has been the greatest single factor driving the rise and fall of species over time.

But scientists, political scientists, and sociologists would ask, "How can you account for the great variability of events that have occurred in modern times?" The truth is that we can't be 100 percent certain, but we can better approximate the most fundamental trends that have driven past changes and will very likely drive our future. The two trends beyond climate that are most applicable to human and economic progress in the last 10,000 years are demographic trends in population and aging, and technological innovation. We have been predicting the most basic trends in economics since the late 1980s with greater and greater accuracy, just like weather trends. And we keep learning more and predicting more long term and short term, and again we will never get it totally right. But the people who have listened to us have made much better decisions than others over the last fifteen to twenty years.

Some of the greatest insights into predictability recently have come from DNA research. Despite our different environments growing up, we can more closely predict our personalities and characteristics from our DNA -- and we will be able to change them in the future if we choose. We can now track the migrations of past ethnic groups around the world with much greater accuracy than through anthropological finds -- through DNA tracing. But perhaps the greatest insight comes from Stephen Wolfram, author of A New Kind of Science. He has shown that the most complex patterns and cycles in nature actually evolve from very simple formulas or patterns that repeat and evolve over long periods of time.

Complexity evolves from simple factors through growth and replication over increasing periods of time, not complex causes or factors. The truth is that life is complex but evolution and human nature over time are simple. Progress is also very clearly exponential, not linear. And we don't think that way.

More progress has been made in our relative standard of living in the past 200 years than in the 10,000 years previously, and more progress was made in the past 10,000 years than millions of years before. Hence, the history of progress is clearly exponential beyond our present conceptions. In this book, as in many past books, we look at more and more trends that we can predict (despite seemingly random short-term events) well into the future that will affect our economy, our investments, our lives, our businesses, our children's educations and careers, our real estate and living circumstances -- as well as many other aspects of our lives. And we use very commonsense indicators like when the average family spends the most money in their lifetime, which any of us can readily understand as we do similar things in our lives.

Imagine living in the Stone Age and not understanding how and why our seasons of weather change every year and being shocked by the advent of winter. We are charting the seasons of our economy in a way that has never been done before but is proving to be increasingly accurate. Many of the same types of things that occurred eighty years ago are recurring today -- including the recent tech crash and terrorist strikes. All of our books have emphasized an approximate two-generation or eighty-year cycle in the emergence of radical new technologies and new economies and ways of living and doing business. The tech wreck and terrorist crisis of the early 1920s was followed by the greatest bull market in history and advances in our standard of living to follow from the late 1930s into the 1970s that literally no one would have forecasted back then. For the first time in history, we don't have to be "surprised" when spring or summer turns to fall or winter in our economy!

These seasons in our economy, as well as longer-term advances in technologies and our standard of living, are largely predictable. In this book we will look at how our economy and stock market will very likely evolve over the coming decade -- when we will see the gre...

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Customer Reviews

Interesting Theory, But Timing Was Off
Although I am not well-versed in the stock market, I picked up this book at an airport while waiting for a flight, during a time (early 2006) when I was still practicing full-time as a real estate agent.

Hoping for a little insight into the future of real estate, I was surprised when his forecasts showed it would still be strong until about 2009. I had already felt the sudden crunch of a collapsed market after two local hurricanes within a year burst the fanstastic bubble that had surrounded real estate sales from 2003-2005. Yet I gave him the benefit of the doubt by thinking we may not have been in for the real hard times for a while yet. Over two years later, real estate markets in general have continued to decline nationwide, and I can only hope that his forecasts are way ahead of schedule. If not - well, we will not see success and prosperity in real estate for many, many years then. I hope he is wrong by at least 4 or 5 years, and I believe that he is. For whatever reason, the future came more quickly than he expected.

I don't believe you can compare the economic effects of the technology and information revolution we are experiencing with the economic effects the world experienced as a result of the industrial revolution, as the author has done in this book. The two are totally different. That's what makes them revolutionary.

Our world and the way we do business are being reshaped almost daily, as technology and the availability of information create something akin to what I would call a giant "brainstorm" of creative ideas about ways to use new information and market products. The power of the internet in influencing economic conditions is something I don't believe even a fururist could have accurately predicted, because we are learning its potential as we go along.

Yet this book was an interesting overview of generational change. I still believe that as investors, no one cares for your money like you do. It will always be important to be informed, to do the due diligence and stay on top of your own investments. Blindly following a trend or forecast is not a plan.

Moonstone Star White is the author of the personal growth title High Way from Hell: Using Emotion to Fan the Fire of Enlightenment.

Good book, good idea, timing a little off
Very good book at predicting long-term trends. However, his short-term analysis and predictions are a little off the mark, sometimes by a few years. As long as you don't take his advice as "short term advice" then I would say the book is very good, if not brilliant. His analysis is refreshing, unique, and definitely worth considering. His book is just not a replacement for investment advice. I would call it "a manual to what the future holds, and how you can be prepared to tackle it".

UNCANNILY INACCURATE
I believed him when I read The Roaring 2000s and he was wrong. I came back for more with this one and he is proving to be even more wrong.